Putin may seize opening for major advance on Ukraine’s second city

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to launch an all-out offensive on Ukraine’s second-largest city, experts have warned.

With US military aid having stalled, Ukraine is struggling to obtain enough ammunition and soldiers to continue to defend against Russia – which could open the door to an advance on Kharkiv.

Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at London’s Chatham House think-tank, told i that Russia could be preparing a ground assault on the city, which it has attacked with glide bombs and S-300 ballistic missiles in recent months.

Ukraine is simply “patching the quilt, and hoping to avoid a disaster”, she said, while warning that it may not be enough. Ukraine is struggling to get enough artillery shells and air defence weapons, which are key to defending cities and vital infrastructure such as nuclear power stations, and to maintaining the 1,200km frontline.

Ms Lutsevych said that any attack on Kharkiv would be “consistent with Russia’s war aims” and could resemble the scorched-earth offensive on Mariupol back in 2022. That could lead to a “humanitarian disaster”, she added.

About a million people now live in Kharkiv, according to recent estimates.

Western officials with knowledge of Ukraine’s military told Bloomberg that Ukraine is at its most fragile since the war began more than two years ago, with concerns its army is close to breaking point.

They said that Moscow could see its first opening to make a major advance since near the start of the conflict.

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Kharkiv has faced heavy bombardment from Russia in recent months, and Russian news outlets have raised the possibility of an attack on the city, which is close to the border.

Ms Lutsevych predicted that any ground assault would not happen before the end of the summer or the beginning of the autumn, as Russia does not currently have enough troops to attack a city of that size.

“It’s one thing to have an aerial bombardment campaign with drones, but it’s another thing to take territory,” she said. “To take territory they need much bigger infantry units, brigades, and motorised units that will actually take territory.”

That leaves a window open to the West to increase its support for Ukraine, she said.

Russia has also been attacking Ukraine’s energy bases, and destroyed Trypilska, the largest thermal power generator in the Kyiv region this week. That represented a shift in Russia’s aims, Ms Lutsevych said, as it tries to make it more difficult for the West to sustain Ukraine economically.

Previously, it was attacking Ukraine’s energy distribution system, which she said is much easier to replace. It could take six months to repair the generator, she claimed, hitting both private companies looking to export their goods, as well as civilians – meaning more financial support will be needed from the West.

“This is another way to make it expensive to bail out Ukraine for the West,” she said. “They want to eliminate Ukraine’s self-sustaining income so that it becomes unbearable for the West.”

Earlier this week, analysts said Russia is in danger of being slowed by rocketing equipment losses, which they said were “unsustainable”.

The Russian military besieged Mariupol for months, blockading the Azovstal steelworks with fighters and citizens holed up inside.