3 Royals who will improve in 2024 and 2 who will not

The Kansas City Royals put together one of the most exciting offseasons in franchise history. They signed numerous veteran free agents and extended their franchise cornerstone, Bobby Witt Jr., to secure his place on the roster for years to come.

To improve on 106 losses shouldn’t be a tough task. How much worse can things get?

Still, to do so, Kansas City cannot rely solely on the new faces on the roster. They need to see some of their young players move forward in their development. Of course, not everyone on the roster is going to get better.

5. Royals 2B Michael Massey will take a step forward in 2024

The Royals’ young two-bagger, Michael Massey, suffered a wild, inconsistent season in 2023, but there are some indications of improvements over the second that could continue this season. There was also a high degree of bad luck that depressed some of his numbers.

A glance at his first-half/second-half splits shows a tremendous drop in his strikeouts. In the first half, he whiffed 62 times in 220 plate appearances. After the midway point, he cut that number to 37 in 241 plate appearances.

His power ticked upward significantly. Through the first half, hit just four home runs and six doubles. Over the second half, he clobbered 11 dingers and legged out 12 doubles.

Because of this second-half turnaround, his overall numbers may have looked much better if not for his horrific bad fortune. His Batting Average on Balls in Play was a putrid .238 from July on, down 56 points from the first half of the season.

If Massey can continue to make better contact, with more power, and his batted balls can find more holes, Massey’s 2024 numbers should look much better than his overall stats from a year ago.

4. MJ Melendez will build off strong second half for all of 2024

Like Massey, MJ Melendez saw some drastic improvements in the second half of the season. Even if you looked at nothing but the slash lines, you could tell how much better he was after June.

His slash line in the first half was .206/.289/.333 in 346 plate appearances. In the second half, however, there was a marked improvement, posting a line of .273/.352/.485 in 256 plate appearances.

Despite having 90 less plate appearances in the second half, he had more total bases, 110 to 102. While his Walk Rate stayed about the same, he lowered his Strikeout Rate from 29.8 percent to 26.2 percent.

While his BABIP skyrocketed from .285 in the first half to .344 in the second, part of that was he was hitting fewer flyballs and more line drives and ground balls. He also increased his Hard Hit Rate from 38.8 percent to 46 percent. He was hitting fewer easy fly balls and making better contact, which led to a higher BABIP.

Assuming he continues to make better contact and whittle away at his Strikeout Rate, there is a good chance he second half can be the new norm for Melendez going forward.

3. SP Brady Singer will give the Royals a much more promising 2024

2023 was not a great season for Brady Singer as it was, in many aspects, the worst of his career. He set a new career high in ERA with a hideous number of 5.52. He also set career-worst marks for Batting Average Against and Slugging Percent Against and his Strikeout Rate dropped significantly from the year before from 24.2 percent to 19 percent.

Still, there is some reason for optimism. In the second half, in all the areas mentioned above, he improved in the second half. Maybe 2023 can be written off to a small extent as a bad few months.

One thing working in his favor is some of the pressure and spotlight should be removed from Singer. Cole Ragans, acquired in a trade with Texas, had a terrific last two months of the season, and the Royals added Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. This will move Singer down in the rotation to the number four slot, rather than one or two, and maybe that can help him turn things around.

This is a make-or-break season for Singer. He’s not really lived up to his billing as a top college pitcher in the 2018 draft. He basically just throws two pitches – a slider and a sinker – which makes it incredibly difficult to be a starting pitcher, but he has slowly been developing a changeup. If he can master this offering a bit more, and use it more, it could help move his career in the right direction.

2. Salvador Perez will start to show signs of decline in 2024

After a peak season in 2021, when Salvador Perez led the American League with 48 home runs and 121 RBI (yet dissed by finishing seventh in the MVP voting), he’s been slowing down.

In the last two seasons, he’s hit just 23 home runs each season, and his average has fallen to the .255 range, 12 points below his career average.

His splits reveal an uptick in batting average during the second half of 2023, but a drop in his power. He batted .267 in the second half, compared to .246 in the first, but his Slugging Percentage dropped from .435 to .404

Perez turns 34 in May, and despite the fact the Royals are now in a position to get him out from behind the plate more often and let him play first base or DH, don’t expect a resurgence in his power numbers.

He’s hit more than 20 home runs in seven straight seasons he’s played, not counting the shortened 2020 campaign. It’s possible he can get there again, but don’t expect him to exceed his 2023 numbers at this point in his career.

1. Jordan Lyles won’t bounce back after rough 2023 season

If you look a Jordan Lyles’ numbers from 2023, you might wonder how is it possible he doesn’t improve. The reason is simply because, at age 33, he pretty much is what he is at this point. He’s basically an innings-eater at the back of the rotation.

Yes, Lyles was better in 2022 than in 2023, but the latter season reflects his numbers from 2020 and 2021. He’s led the majors in earned runs allowed in three of the past four seasons, including 2023. He’s also given up an average of 34 homers over the past three years.

Lyles has never been a big strikeout guy, but he only whiffed 16 percent of hitters he faced last, the lowest number in a full season since 2016. He doesn’t really walk that many batters but hitters slugged at a rate of .501 against him.

The Royals have to be hoping a young pitcher emerges soon, or maybe someone returning from injury, like Kris Bubic, can replace Lyles in the rotation. It would surprising, and probably disappointing, if Lyles was in the rotation the whole season.

The Kansas City Royals have plenty to look forward to in 2024. They should be nowhere near 106 losses again, and might even challenge for a while in a weak American League Central. Things are certainly looking up for the Royals.

This article was originally published on fansided.com as 3 Royals who will improve in 2024 and 2 who will not.

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