Northeast braces for heavy snowstorm and dangerous travel Tuesday

northeast braces for heavy snowstorm and dangerous travel tuesday

Northeast braces for heavy snowstorm and dangerous travel Tuesday

Winter storm warnings are in effect for much of the Northeast ahead of a powerful nor’easter that will bring heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding late Monday night and Tuesday. Some areas could be pasted by a foot of heavy, wet snow, including Hartford, Conn.; Providence, R.I.; and Boston.

The storm “will produce widespread heavy snowfall with rates exceeding 2 [inches] per hour across central Pennsylvania and southern New York Tuesday morning and southern New England Tuesday afternoon,” the National Weather Service said. It is also “forecast to cause moderate coastal flooding at high tide Tuesday along the Jersey Shore and portions of both the New York and New England coasts.”

The Weather Service cautioned that the heft of the snow combined with strong winds could damage trees and knock out power.

Some uncertainty remains regarding exact snow amounts from New York City to Boston because small shifts in the storm track could bump totals a little higher or lower, and they could affect how cold it gets near Interstate 95. To the south, the precipitation could end as a brief period of snow from around Washington, D.C., and Baltimore up to Philadelphia, but temperatures above freezing should limit the potential for snow accumulation.

The sweet spot for accumulating snow will probably stretch from central Pennsylvania through southern New York and Connecticut into southeastern Massachusetts, where at least 8 to 12 inches could fall between Monday night and Tuesday. Population centers that could be affected include State College and Scranton in Pennsylvania; Poughkeepsie, N.Y.; Hartford; Providence; and Springfield and Worcester in Massachusetts.

Overall, over 40 million people are under winter weather alerts from the panhandle of West Virginia to southeastern Maine.

Before arriving in the Northeast, the storm will dump heavy rain in the Southeast on Monday afternoon, with the potential for severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes.

The storm follows an unusually mild weekend in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where temperatures reached the 50s and 60s. Snow cover is well below normal for this time of year across the contiguous United States due to a recent nationwide warm spell.

Forecast for the I-95 corridor

New York City

Rain should arrive from the south Monday night around 9 p.m. to midnight. As the precipitation becomes heavier and temperatures cool to the lower 30s, it should change to snow from north to south around 3 to 6 a.m., perhaps mixing with sleet during the transition. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times during the morning commute before exiting from west to east in the early afternoon. Long Island, especially eastern sections, could get a mix of snow, sleet and rain later into the morning.

The Weather Service is predicting around 5 to 8 inches in the city and Long Island, but amounts could be lower than that if temperatures don’t cool enough. The forecast increases to 8 to 12 inches in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Small shifts in the storm track could bump these forecast totals higher or lower.

The area from Newark to Long Island, including New York City, is under a winter storm watch, while winter storm warnings are in effect to the northwest.

Winds on Tuesday and Tuesday night could gust 30 to 40 mph around the city and 40 to 50 mph on Long Island.

northeast braces for heavy snowstorm and dangerous travel tuesday

Model forecast of precipitation from Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening. Universal time displayed; subtract 5 hours for Eastern time. (WeatherBell)

Boston

A mix of rain and snow should arrive early Tuesday around 4 to 7 a.m., then change to all snow around 7 to 9 a.m. as temperatures drop to near or below freezing, meaning deteriorating conditions during the morning commute. The snow should be moderate to heavy at times before moving out by early Tuesday evening.

The Weather Service office serving Boston warned of “dangerous travel” between the morning and afternoon on Tuesday, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour and “brief instances” of 3 to 4 inches per hour.

Snow totals are predicted to range from 7 to 13 inches, according to the Weather Service.

“Localized totals over a foot are possible from northern [Connecticut and Rhode Island] along and south of the [Massachusetts] Turnpike,” the Weather Service wrote.

Small shifts in the storm track could move these forecast totals higher or lower. The entire area is under a winter storm warning.

Winds could gust 30 to 45 mph Tuesday around Boston, and 40 to 55 mph on Cape Cod. Moderate coastal flooding is possible in eastern Massachusetts, where the Weather Service is predicting a surge as high as 3.5 feet at the time of Tuesday afternoon’s high tide.

Philadelphia

Scattered rain showers should develop Monday afternoon around 3 to 6 p.m., becoming steadier during the evening and heavy at times overnight into Tuesday morning. The rain could mix with or change to snow around 6 to 9 a.m., perhaps mixing with sleet, before moving out from west to east by around noon.

It looks like temperatures will remain above freezing, which should limit snow potential in the city to around 1 inch or less. The best chance of accumulating snow is on grassy areas north of the city, where up to 1 to 2 inches could fall. Small shifts in the storm track could change the forecast to a slightly snowier one.

Winds on Tuesday could gust 25 to 35 mph.

Washington and Baltimore

Scattered rain showers could develop Monday afternoon around 2 to 5 p.m. The rain should become steadier during the evening and should be heavy at times overnight. It may mix with or change to snow around 6 to 9 a.m. Tuesday morning, especially north and northwest of the cities, before the precipitation exits the area from west to east around 10 a.m. to noon.

Temperatures should remain above freezing throughout the storm, with only a chance of a light snow accumulation, mainly on grassy areas north and northwest of D.C. and Baltimore. A little slush on sidewalks and roads is possible in D.C.’s far northern and northwestern suburbs in Carroll, Frederick and northern Loudoun counties.

Winds could gust 30 to 40 mph on Tuesday afternoon.

Interior and mountain snow

Interior snowfall could range from around 8 to 12 inches across much of central and northeastern Pennsylvania, the central Hudson Valley, Connecticut, parts of Rhode Island and central Massachusetts, with higher amounts possible in a few spots within this zone. Much of this region is under a winter storm warning.

Lesser amounts, around 3 to 6 inches, are probable for Western Maryland, portions of West Virginia and southern parts of New Hampshire and Vermont.

Small shifts in the storm track could cause those totals to fluctuate up or down a few inches.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

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