Vantage: Why did Zelensky travel to 'neutral' Saudi Arabia?

Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. REUTERS

Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. He held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The choice of destination is key because Riyadh is neutral turf. It doesn’t support Ukraine or Russia. On one side, MBS cooperates with Putin to keep oil prices up. On the other hand, he backs UN resolutions against Russia. So he is keeping his options open. He isn’t, by any stretch, an ally of Kyiv.

Why did Zelensky travel to Saudi Arabia?

“President Zelensky noted in particular Saudi Arabia’s strivings to help in restoring a just peace in Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s leadership can help find a just solution,” read the Ukrainian statement. So Kyiv wants Saudi Arabia’s middleman powers, and Ukraine is quite good at it. In September 2022, Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners. The deal was a complete surprise. Nobody had expected either side to agree. But Riyadh got it done.

Saudi officials said MBS played a key role in the talks. He got Moscow and Kyiv to exchange 300 prisoners, and around 10 of them were foreign nationals. So Saudi Arabia has a track record of doing some good middle-man work. Maybe Zelensky wants a repeat of that. He recently called for the release of captured Ukrainians, which could offer him a domestic political boost.

“Today, no one can say for sure how many of our citizens—children and adults, warriors and civilians—are being held in Russian captivity, in Russian deportation, in camps, and how many of our people are in the prisons of this terrorist state. But each of us can and must speak with absolute certainty and specificity; we must do our best to bring all these people home to Ukraine,” said the Ukrainian president.

Ukraine is planning a grand peace summit that will be hosted by Switzerland later this year. The goal is to discuss Zelensky’s peace plan. The plan has 10 points, which include Russia withdrawing and giving back territory. Basically, this is a non-starter for Putin, which is why Zelensky needs more support. Not just from the West but also from neutral partners such as Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has the biggest economy in West Asia. Also the natural leader of the Muslim world. So if MBS supports Kyiv, it will add weight to Zelensky’s plan. But will the crown prince do that?

Here’s what the Saudi statement says: “MBS affirmed the Kingdom’s keenness and support for all international endeavours and efforts aimed at resolving the Ukrainian-Russian crisis.”

Two things to note: One, he doesn’t even call it a war; he is calling it a crisis. Two, he stands ready to help and negotiate. Now, this sums up Riyadh’s policy. Yes, they have pushed for peace, but they have done so without picking sides. MBS needs Putin to keep the oil prices high. A higher oil-price equals more revenue. More revenue equals more futuristic projects and mega cities. So don’t expect MBS to abandon Putin but forget Saudi Arabia for a moment.

What does this outreach say about Zelensky?

The Ukrainian president is on shaky ground now. Things are not going well on the battlefield. In the east, Ukrainian troops are being pushed back; they recently abandoned a town called Avdiivka. It was Russia’s biggest victory since May 2023. Plus, military aid is stuck. The US Congress hasn’t approved Joe Biden’s request, and Ukraine is waiting on 60 billion dollars. Kyiv is running low on weapons and ammunition.

In simple words, Zelensky is getting desperate; he needs to widen his coalition of supporters. He needs to reach out to neutral partners and maybe offer some concessions. We have seen that desperation in his recent statements. This week, he revealed Ukraine’s total battlefield losses for the first time. More than 31 thousand soldiers have been killed so far. Zelensky also said losing isn’t an option.

“We have no alternative but to win. There’s no possibility of losing, because what if Ukraine loses? We won’t exist; our existence will cease. So we definitely do not want such an ending to the fight for our lives,” said Zelensky.

So Zelensky needs to rally the world. He needs to remind the world about Ukraine. But it is a tough mission because there is a second war now—an arguably deadlier one. Some 25 thousand civilians have been killed in Gaza; in Ukraine, that number is 10 thousand.

Plus, West Asia is a more sensitive region, so the global community is focusing on the second war. Which is why Zelensky hopped on a flight. He has a short window here. February 24 was the anniversary of Russia’s invasion, so he is getting some air time and focus. Zelensky wants to capitalise on that.

After Saudi Arabia, he has now gone to Albania. There, he is attending a security summit. But will these visits and statements translate into actual political support? Our experience over the past two years says no.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.