Colombia inflation forecast to slow in February

FILE PHOTO: A woman does the shopping in a supermarket in Bogota, Colombia October 30, 2018. REUTERS/Luisa Gonzalez/File Photo

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) -Inflation in Colombia could have slowed for the 11th month in a row in February, a Reuters poll said on Friday, which combined with low economic growth could push the central bank to make stronger cuts to its benchmark interest rate.

The median of responses from 20 analysts sees consumer prices rising by 0.94% in February, far lower than the 1.66% registered in the same month last year and just slightly higher than the 0.92% registered in January.

Estimates ranged from 0.75% to 1.32%.

If the median estimate is met, Colombia’s 12-month inflation through February would have slowed to 7.58%, falling below the 8.35% in January but staying well above the central bank’s 3% target.

The government’s DANE statistics agency will publish inflation data for February on March 7.

Fourteen analysts expect lower inflation in February to push the central bank to cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to 12.25% at the end of March, while five thought that it would reduce it by 75 basis points to 12%.

One analyst forecast a 25 basis-point cut, taking the rate to 12.50%.

“February will show that the greatest deceleration in inflation will occur in the first quarter of the year, which will allow the central bank to consider a stronger cut in interest rates in March,” said Jackeline Pirajan, an economist at Scotiabank Colpatria, who forecast a 75-basis point cut.

Colombia’s economy grew just 0.6% in 2023, almost half what the market expected.

The central bank’s technical team expects the benchmark rate will stay higher than the market estimates, in an effort to lower inflation amid upward price risks related to the El Nino weather phenomenon.

In the survey, analysts’ forecasts for inflation at the end of this year rose to 5.47%, up from the 5.38% in last month’s survey.

The central bank expects inflation to converge on its 3% target by the first half of 2025 at the latest.

(Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Alison Williams and Jonathan Oatis)