ABN: a lot of uncertainty, probably no contraction due to Omikron

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ABN: a lot of uncertainty, probably no contraction due to Omikron

Photo: ANP

Despite great uncertainty about economic expectations, the emergence of the Omikron variant of the coronavirus is unlikely to lead to another contraction. ABN AMRO writes this in a report on the forecasts for next year. The bank does state that the symptoms of Omikron should not be more severe than with previous variants and that people who have been vaccinated or recovered from the virus have a certain degree of protection.

The corona pandemic will still cause economic headwinds in the first half of next year, but a contraction of the economy of the United States and the eurozone is not expected. In addition, global supply chain problems should gradually ease over the course of 2022, although they will still have a dampening effect on the economy, ABN AMRO said. Omikron could possibly lead to the normalization of logistics chains taking longer.

Furthermore, ABN AMRO believes that inflation will clearly weaken in the coming year. In the eurozone, inflation should fall below the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB) by the end of the year, helped in part by reduced supply chain problems.

In addition, the bank expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June and then two more times in 2022. The ECB is not expected to change interest rates, according to ABN AMRO. ECB President Christine Lagarde has already said not to foresee an interest rate hike before 2022.

ABN: a lot of uncertainty, probably no contraction due to Omikron
Source link ABN: a lot of uncertainty, probably no contraction due to Omikron

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