Starmer allies gripped by fear of Labour complacency amid byelection triumphs

Labour’s Gen Kitchen, second left, celebrates victory in the Wellingborough byelection. Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

For the past few months, with Labour enjoying a stubbornly large double-digit lead in the polls, close allies of Keir Starmer remained obsessed with the notion that complacency will slip into the mindsets of MPs, advisers and activists.

In a breathless week that saw Labour veer from having to abandon one byelection before scooping previously safe Tory seats in two others, the obsessives were given three opportunities to drive their point home.

The first was the most alarming. When it emerged that the party’s experienced Rochdale byelection candidate Azhar Ali had told a private meeting that Israel “allowed” the 7 October attacks by Hamas, an initial decision was made to stand by him – a move described as “terrible” by some in the shadow cabinet.

After it was then revealed he had said “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” were fuelling criticism of a pro-Palestinian MP, the decision was taken to cut him loose.

“The truth is, they’re just a bit slow at decision-making,” said one shadow minister. “It’s as simple as that.”

For a leader who listed changing the party and weeding out antisemitism as one of his central achievements, it could scarcely have been worse. For the complacency hawks, it served as a reminder of the vigilance needed.

“You’ve got to use all these things to strengthen what you do,” said one senior figure. “We’ve changed the party at an absolute rapid speed. But you can just tell in the last week why the risk of complacency around party change is there. There’s a reminder for the whole party: it’s not that long ago we were a party Jewish people feared about getting into government.”

There was also fury within the leader’s office over comments from Ed Balls. The former shadow chancellor defended Graham Jones, another candidate suspended for comments made at the same meeting attended by Ali. Balls said Jones was “not a Corbynite, not hard left – absolutely not anti-Israel”.

That angered those dealing with the row. “It is a sign of an organisation that is not voter-focused,” said one. “Irrespective of what wing of the party you come from, party change needs to be a permanent change. You can’t backslide.”

The second moment for complacency hunters came as Labour’s bad week suddenly ended in celebration, as the party scooped two more previously safe Tory seats in the Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections and watched a beleaguered Rishi Sunak blame “midterm” difficulties (the election is now just months away). Once again, it was taken by several shadow cabinet ministers as a cue to reprimand those celebrating too early.

“You just keep getting people talking as if the next election has already been won at all levels – whether that’s MPs, party members, Labour party supporters. There’s a sense of: ‘The next election is won – so why aren’t we doing more of this or more of that’, including whatever their pet project is,” said one shadow cabinet member.

“The election hasn’t happened. Not a single vote has been cast. Byelections have been fantastic, but byelections are not a general election.”

The third moment came in the form of new analysis passed to Starmer’s team last week. It contained fresh modelling designed to answer that ultimate question: whatever the polls say now, how may voters behave when the election arrives? In a counter to models based on current polling, such as one in the last week that put Labour on course for an improbable 254-seat majority, the document examines several scenarios.

Its central scenario is one that many Labour pessimists believe is the most likely – where many voters who say they “don’t know” who they will back return to the party they supported at the last election, while wavering Tory switchers head back to Sunak.

It leaves Labour with a workable 78-seat majority – roughly the size of that enjoyed by Boris Johnson, but not 1997 all over again. It also contains a scenario of a Reform UK collapse. That would see Labour with 312 seats and no majority at all. It was “very helpful in concentrating minds”, said one senior figure.

Josh Simons, director of the Labour Together group, which conducted the analysis, said: “For years, the evidence has shown that months out from an election, voters answer a different question to the one pollsters intend. They report dissatisfaction with the government, not the judgment they will make alone in the ballot box on polling day.

He added: “The Westminster bubble thinks Labour has it in the bag. But in recent years the bubble has had an excellent track record of getting it wrong. Those who want a new government in Britain would be unwise, even for a moment, to be complacent.”

Even as party officials worry away about how and when things can go wrong, they do not have to wait long for a new threat.

This week, the Scottish National party (SNP) plans to hold a new Commons vote calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza – a demand that goes further than Starmer’s backing for a “sustainable ceasefire”.

A series of frontbenchers have already had to step down in order to back a similar SNP motion in November. Labour has not yet announced how it will order MPs to vote, but the issue is causing agonies for many Labour MPs this weekend.

“People are seriously worried – we’re talking about a Labour rebellion of 100 plus if we don’t have a decent amendment,” said one MP who backed the previous motion.

Others were anxious to know if they were going to be ordered to oppose or abstain. One senior MP said there would be a serious backlash from MPs and voters, including liberal voters the party relies on in some seats, should their party not back the motion.

“People like me will back that unless they are going to threaten us with suspension,” they said.

While Labour’s strong poll lead means analysts do not believe seats will be lost because of its position on Gaza, MPs with large Muslim communities and big groups of leftwing, liberal voters – already concerned by Labour ditching its pledge to spend £28bn a year on green investment – are nervous. Discipline will be severely tested.

In an open letter to Labour MPs seen by the Observer, the SNP’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, made a direct appeal to them. “Since Westminster rejected a ceasefire in November, more than 28,000 Palestinian children, women and men have been killed – and huge swathes of Gaza have been obliterated, including hospitals and family homes,” he writes. “More than a million Palestinians have been displaced – and the population is facing a growing humanitarian crisis.

“The intolerable situation in Gaza is far more important than any narrow party loyalties – and it places a moral duty on all of us to act … For those Labour MPs who are wavering, I urge you to press Keir Starmer to change his position.

“If he won’t, I urge you to be on the right side of history and join us in doing the only right thing by voting for an immediate ceasefire now.”

And beyond the immediate problems posed by the SNP vote, there is the prospect of the Rochdale byelection later this month that the party will now not contest. Labour’s withdrawal of support for Ali means there is a much better chance for George Galloway, the former Labour MP who has previously displaced the party in two other seats. He is campaigning relentlessly on Gaza and Starmer’s refusal to back an immediate ceasefire.

Should Galloway claim victory, he will have six months to heap pressure on Labour MPs over the issue in the House of Commons. If that is the case, the party’s ability to deal with crises – while maintaining that prized poll lead – may soon be tested to an even greater extent within weeks.