The Republicans who aren’t endorsing Trump

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In today’s edition …  Immigration fear heats up Trump-Haley clash, dominates late GOP ad spending … Twelve House hard-liners sink a procedural rule in protest of Johnson’s bipartisan government funding deal … but first …

The campaign

Why vulnerable House Republicans aren’t endorsing Trump

Former president Donald Trump is dominating the congressional endorsement game, picking up the backing of every member of the House GOP leadership as well as an increasing number of senators.

But a key group has not endorsed him: the most vulnerable 17 House Republicans who represent districts where President Biden beat Trump in 2020.

Trump’s endorsements mostly come from Republicans in red districts where members fear a primary from the right.

But for swing-district Republicans, it’s arguably less beneficial to proactively back the former president, who continues to deny that he lost the last election, calls Jan. 6 convicts “hostages” and says he will prosecute his political enemies if elected.

“You’ve got to let the primary run its course,” is all that Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), a freshman running for reelection in a district that Biden won by less than 1 percentage point, said when asked why he hasn’t endorsed Trump.

Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), whose central New York district voted for Biden by 4.6 points and who is facing a rematch with his 2022 Democratic rival, said he hasn’t endorsed because he doesn’t want to get involved in presidential politics.

However, he suggested he would back Trump should he win the Republican nomination.

“I’m confident I’ll support the Republican nominee,” Molinaro said.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is just waiting for the 17 to come out in support of Trump should he notch the nomination. “The so-called moderate House Republicans – who are slow-walking their inevitable endorsement – will ultimately go all in on Trump. When they do, their decision will alienate voters who want reasonable representation, not MAGA minions. To quote Donald Trump: ‘They always bend the knee,‘” spokesman Viet Shelton said.

What a difference a year makes

Trump initially struggled to attract congressional support. Just 30 members of Congress he endorsed in 2022 had returned the favor as of February 2023, suggesting that Trump’s hold on the party wasn’t certain.

But now, just four days before the Iowa caucuses, Trump has received the endorsement of 104 House members — about half of the Republican conference — and 19 senators, according to CNN.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), one of Trump’s closest allies on Capitol Hill, hasn’t pressured the vulnerable members to back Trump but has suggested to her colleagues that a Trump endorsement is good politics and good for their reelection because it motivates base voters. “I believe it’s a net gain for Republican candidates on the ballot to endorse Donald Trump and support him for President,” she told us in a November interview.

At a political conference meeting in December, Stefanik — the fourth-highest ranking House Republican — presented Trump’s strong polling numbers, a detail first reported by CNN, as a way to prove his that he is beneficial for the party.

Trump and some of the 17 Republicans who are most vulnerable have fraught histories. Trump campaigned against Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) in the midterms. And Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. (Former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) convinced Trump to not attack Valadao last cycle.)

Jan. 6 ‘hostages’

Trump and his rhetoric remains divisive in a party reluctant to espouse a bad word about the former president. Some of that frustration is being taken out on his surrogates.

Stefanik, who is in charge of GOP messaging, has frustrated some Republicans with comments she made on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, when she called the Jan. 6 defendants “hostages” and refused to commit to certifying the 2024 election.

Stefanik has been floated as a vice-presidential contender if Trump wins this year. A senior Republican aide suggested that Stefanik could be putting her own priorities ahead of what’s politically best for the Republican conference, which is to maintain the House majority.

Yet there’s some evidence to the contrary. Stefanik has focused on winning the half dozen competitive seats in New York, announced a this week a $5 million fundraising haul in the last quarter and attended Biden-district freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans’s (R-Va.) campaign launch.

Recent polling by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland suggests a majority of Americans are not sympathetic to Jan. 6 rioters. An overwhelming number of Americans — 72 percent — believe Jan. 6 convicts have received sentences that were fair or not harsh enough.

“I think it’s a mistake,” Bacon, whose district favored Biden by 6 percentage points, told our colleague Paul Kane. “I think they’re playing to a certain segment of our base. But the broad, broad electorate doesn’t like it.”

One member of leadership disagreed with Stefanik on Jan. 6.

“You know, I think, anyone who committed criminal trespassing, anyone who violated the law should absolutely be prosecuted. Period. End of story,” House Majority Leader Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said Wednesday, per Paul. But Emmer did go on to blame former Democratic speaker Nancy Pelosi for security lapses that day, Paul writes.

Democrats are already using Stefanik’s comments to tie the most vulnerable Republicans to the most extreme comments made by Trump and his supporters, as Biden frames his campaign about a fight to protect democracy.

The swing-district Republicans, whom the party calls “Patriots,” are encouraged to ignore national politics, which is why they are loath to talk about Trump and Jan. 6 rioters and instead focus on local issues.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson came to Stefanik’s defense. “Our Patriots run circles around the Democrats, outperforming the political terrain because they know the roadmap of their districts,” Hudson said, calling Stefanik “an incredible partner.”

Ciscomani, whose district in Arizona borders Mexico, declined to comment on Stefanik’s comments and said “the border” is voters’ priority in his district.

What we’re watching

In the House

Can Republicans break a House Freedom Caucus blockade on the floor?

Twelve hard-liners sank a procedural rule in protest of Speaker Mike Johnson’s government funding deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Republicans across the conference met with the speaker to try to figure out how to break the logjam, our colleague Marianna Sotomayor reports.

Freedom Caucus members in particular want Johnson to renege on the funding deal or take initiative on next steps that incorporate more spending cuts. Some speculated that Johnson could put the rule vote on the floor again and, if it fails, let the House adjourn for the weekend without passing any legislation, Marianna notes.

New year, same House.

In the Senate

We are still watching to see whether there’s a breakthrough on talks on border security. Senate negotiators continue to work toward an agreement on one of the toughest issues: humanitarian parole.

“The Biden administration has wielded parole expansively, using it as the basis for two controversial border initiatives that currently allow in about 50,000 migrants per month,” our colleagues Liz Goodwin and Nick Miroff and Leigh Ann write. Republicans the president has abused the power to create more legal pathways, further incentivizing migrants to the border. The administration argues the tool provides the president with the necessary flexibility to manage the border and has reduced the number of unauthorized crossings.

• “It is hard to be able to get the wording right because again we’re not trying to take out every authority from every president on how to use humanitarian parole,” said Sen. James Lankford (Okla.), the Republican negotiator. 

On the campaign trail

Will the two hours Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley spent pulverizing each other during a CNN debate on Wednesday night change any Republicans’ minds heading into Monday’s Iowa caucuses? We are skeptical.

On K Street

Suzanne Clark, the president and chief executive of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, will deliver the trade group’s annual speech this morning on the state of American business. She’s expected to laud a strong economy while warning that businesses are “under threat from a small but powerful opposition of policymakers, political candidates, academics and organizations.”

We’re watching what Clark says about the possibility that the federal government will partially shut down on Jan. 20 unless Congress manages to strike a deal to keep it open and what such uncertainty means for the Chamber’s members.

From the courts

In Los Angeles: Hunter Biden will be arraigned on federal tax charges in a Los Angeles courtroom today. Biden, 53, was charged by a grand jury in California with nine counts of failing to file and pay taxes, tax evasion and filing false tax returns. He faces up to 17 years in prison if convicted.

In Manhattan: Closing arguments are expected today in the $370 million civil fraud trial over the Trump Organization’s business practices. The former president had requested to personally deliver his closing statement, but New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron struck down the bid after Trump’s legal team refused to abide by Engoron’s restrictions — which included not delivering “a campaign speech.” Engoron has said he intends to make a ruling by the end of January.

In the economy

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release fresh inflation data this morning.

The campaign

Immigration fear heats up Trump-Haley clash, dominates late GOP ad spending

Former president Donald Trump signs autographs at a campaign rally at in Newton, Iowa, on Saturday.

Our colleagues Michael Scherer and Dylan Wells are out this morning with a look at a key Republican campaign issue that is dominating the airwaves in the run-up to the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating contests: immigration.

“The word ‘border’ has been aired in political ads 1,319 times since the start of the year, more than any other word, including the standard disclaimer terms like ‘approve’ and ‘message,’ according to a Tuesday morning report from the ad tracking firm AdImpact,” our colleagues write.

• “The issue looms over the general election, as strong majorities of the American people have come to support tougher enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border. Just 32 percent of the country approve of Biden’s handling of the border in a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, while 35 percent approve of congressional Republicans handling of the issue.”
• “Trump has returned to an old playbook of highlighting the border threat and stoking fear about immigrants, repeatedly using inflammatory and dehumanizing language that garners media coverage and forces fellow Republican leaders to distance themselves from him. The strategy has, in the past, strengthened his hold on the GOP electorate, while also hurting him among suburban and college-educated voters.”
• “With Haley rising in the polls at a moment many Republicans see her as the strongest Trump alternative, the issue is at the center of their competition. Trump is seeking to cast Haley as too liberal on the issues, seizing on past comments preaching tolerance for migrants, while Haley has countered by touting efforts to crack down on immigration as governor of South Carolina.”

The Media

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