Chris Kenny checks Albanese's claim about average by-election swing

Sky News host Chris Kenny has checked Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s claim that the average swing in a by-election away from the government since 1983 is seven per cent.

Labor currently leads in Dunkley by a 6.3 per cent margin.

Mr Kenny questioned where the Prime Minister got his figure of seven per cent and said on that number, “Dunkley would be gone”.

“Not all by-elections are contested by the major parties so let’s go to the ABC’s election guru Antony Green, who says that since 1983, there have been 28 by-elections contested between the two major parties, and the average swing against the government has been 3.5 per cent.

Chris Kenny checks Albanese’s claim about average by-election swing

“It’s higher against Labor governments, 4.7 per cent, and lower, at 2.3 per cent, against Coalition governments,

“So these are the real numbers, anything over 3.5 is worse than average in this by-election … and a swing above 4.7 per cent is even worse than a Labor government normally gets.”