5 MLB stars in early slumps and predicting whether they’ll break out or not
Baseball is a game full of ebbs and flows. There will be times when players are locked in and can carry teams, and there will be times when even the best players in the league will look like minor leaguers. That’s just how the sport is.
While we’ve seen players like Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani get off to awesome starts at the plate, we’ve seen other MLB stars like these five, in particular, get off to slow starts. All of them will have better numbers when the season ends than they do right now, but only some of them will fully break out from their slow start.
5) Slow starts are nothing new for Julio Rodriguez who will break out in a big way for the Mariners
He might be just 23 years old, but Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez has already established himself as one of the best position players in the game. He was an All-Star and took home a Silver Slugger in each of his first two MLB seasons and despite his slow start to the 2024 campaign, there’s little reason to believe that’ll change.
The reason for that is because this is who Rodriguez has always been. The fact that he’s a slow starter is annoying, but the numbers suggest he’ll be fine once he eventually busts out of it.
Rodriguez has a career OPS of .742 in March and April. That number then jumps way up to .815 in May. His only other sub-.800 month is June. In the second half of the year, he’s one of, if not the best player in the sport.
Last season, Rodriguez had a .710 OPS through the end of June. Not good. From July 1 through the end of the season, he slashed .312/.364/.561 with 19 home runs, 61 RBI, and 19 stolen bases. Not only did he catapult himself into the MVP conversation, but he nearly led the Mariners to the playoffs.
Yes, he had just a .606 OPS through the end of this April but has five hits in his first 13 at-bats in May entering play on Sunday’s action. He’s already heating up. Watch out, MLB.
4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will only break out with a major change
Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looked like a future face of MLB when he broke out in the 2021 campaign and finished as the AL MVP runner-up to Shohei Ohtani. Had Ohtani not hit and pitched, Guerrero would’ve won the award easily. He was that dominant.
His numbers since haven’t been as eye-popping, but Guerrero has still been a very good hitter. This season has been different, and unfortunately, barring a massive change, it’ll stay that way.
Through his first 34 games of the season, Guerrero is slashing .231/.329/.346 with three home runs and 11 RBI. Three home runs in over one month of action is not what you’d expect from Guerrero.
The issue isn’t his inability to hit the ball hard. He ranks in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 94th percentile in average exit velocity according to Baseball Savant. The issue is Guerrero’s inability to lift the ball.
49.5% of the balls he puts into play have been hit on the ground compared to just 21.2% in the air. There will always be more grounders hit than fly balls, but in 2021 those figures were at 45.6% and 25.2%. It might not seem super stark, but it is. He ranks 12th in MLB in ground ball rate for hitters with at least 140 plate appearances. That’s not where a big bopper wants to be.
It’s good to see Guerrero hit the ball hard, but if he hits it on the ground there isn’t much he can do with it. For him to have success, he must hit the ball in the air a lot more. Once he does, with his hard contact, his numbers will start to boom. Since he hasn’t proven he can do that, it’s hard to predict that he suddenly will.
3) Aaron Judge has already started to break out of his early-season slump
The New York Yankees acquiring Juan Soto gave the Bronx Bombers the most-feared offensive duo, at least on paper, with Soto joining Aaron Judge. There were questions about the rest of the Yankees lineup, but those two seemed like surefire MVP candidates. The addition of Soto would only make Judge better, right? Well, not yet.
Judge got off to a horrific start to his 2024 season. After going hitless in four at-bats with a pair of strikeouts against the Oakland Athletics on April 22 his average was down to .174 on the season. He had a .645 OPS. Very un-Judge-like.
Since then, he has started to turn things around. Judge has a .279/.404/.535 slash line with three home runs and eight RBI in his last eight games entering Sunday, and he wound up having a big day in Sunday’s victory over the Tigers.
His Baseball Savant page has a ton of dark red circles, and he might be fully recovered from his ailments that arose this spring. It should be only smooth sailing from here.
2) It’s hard to trust a Corbin Carroll breakout
In the first half of last season, Corbin Carroll looked like one of the very best players on the planet, which was impressive for a rookie. Unfortunately, his production waned in the second half of the season, particularly in the power department. His decline started conveniently after he suffered a scary-looking shoulder injury.
It’s early, but those struggles have carried over into this season, and then some. The 23-year-old enters play on Monday slashing .194/.291/.242 with one home run and five RBI. Carroll hit 25 home runs last season, 18 of them in the first half, yet he has one in his first 32 games of this season, and it came at Coors Field. Sound the alarm bells.
Will Carroll be this bad the entire season? Of course not. He’s way too talented to hit under .200. However, he only hit seven home runs in the second half of last season. The power drop-off with the potential of his shoulder bothering him is a real concern.
He’ll be better, but with how things look right now, it’s hard to imagine him being much better, which is frustrating for Arizona Diamondbacks fans.
1) Ronald Acuña Jr. is inevitable
The Atlanta Braves do not look like themselves. Forget the fact that they were just swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers to fall to 20-12 on the season. Their offense looks completely lost. They’re 11th in the majors in runs scored which for them is nothing short of atrocious.
The biggest reason their offense has struggled so much is that their best hitters have simply not been hitting. Austin Riley and Matt Olson look lost, but the best player on the team, Ronald Acuña Jr. has not been himself. Despite that slow start, there’s reason to believe he’ll figure it out.
Acuña entered play on Sunday slashing .274/.379/.371 with two home runs and eight RBI in 31 games. He’s been stealing bases, but the power has been nonexistent. Well, he’s finally showing signs of life in May.
Entering play on Sunday, Acuña had seven hits in 14 at-bats this month including hitting his second home run of the year at Dodger Stadium. Only two of those hits were for extra bases, but singles are encouraging to see as well. He’s still been getting on base as evidenced by his .379 OBP, the only thing missing is his power.
When healthy, Acuña has proven he has that, especially as the weather warms up. He only has 20 home runs in March/April in his career, which is his second-lowest of any month. Once he starts to see a couple get over the fence, he’ll be off to the races. Ronald Acuña Jr, is inevitable.
This article was originally published on fansided.com as 5 MLB stars in early slumps and predicting whether they’ll break out or not.