Putin army offensive in east Ukraine to be 'blunted' by US military aid rushed to frontline

An offensive by Vladimir Putin’s army to open up a wide breach in Ukraine’s defences is set to be “blunted” by the US, Britain and other allies supplying more military aid to Kyiv’s forces, say defence experts.

Ukraine is pleading for this equipment and munitions to be rushed to the frontline to stop Russia seizing Chasiv Yar which could pave the way, if it fell, for a major breakthrough in the war.

Putin is believed to want the capture of the town in eastern Ukraine in time for the May 9 Victory Parade in Moscow which celebrates the Soviet Victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

There were reports that 25,000 troops were being launched into the offensive in the Donetsk province of the Donbas region.

If Chasiv Yar fell, Putin’s military would then be able to target the wider “fortress wall” defences in Donetsk, say military experts.

The Russian army is seeking to advance in at least three areas along this section of the frontline.

“Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast (province), but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of US and other Western aid to the frontline,” said the Washington-based think tank, The Insitute for War.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks on Sunday with army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and Defence Minister Rustem Umerov about Chasiv Yar and other battles on the frontline.

In an interview with NBC, Mr Zelensky urged Washington, where the US House of Representatives has approved a $60 billion (£48 billion) aid package for Ukraine, to quickly turn the bill into law and supply weapons before a full-scale attack on Chasiv Yar and other parts of the frontline.

“We are preparing (for an offensive),” said Mr Zelensky, reiterating Colonel-General Syrskyi’s warning that Russia aims to capture the Chasiv Yar by May 9, one of Russia’s largest public holidays.

“I hope we will be able to stay, and the weapons will come on time, and we will repel the enemy, and then we’ll break the plans of the Russian Federation with regards to this full-scale offensive.”

Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak announced a record package of military aid for Ukraine as he headed off to Warsaw and Berlin to meet the leaders of Poland, Germany and Nato.

Warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin “will not stop at the Polish border” if he is not defeated in Ukraine, the Prime Minister pledged £500 million in extra military funding for Kyiv and the UK’s largest-ever donation of key equipment.

The first stop of his European capitals tour on Tuesday will be to Ukraine-neighbouring Poland, where he is set to discuss security co-operation and support for Kyiv in meetings with new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

Ukraine expects Russia to launch a broad offensive in spring and summer after capturing the town of Avdiivka, east of Chasiv Yar, during the winter despite suffering heavy losses.

Ukraine’s Defence Ministry denied last week that Russia had captured all of Bohdanivka, while acknowledging it had lost some positions in the village in eastern Donetsk.

Russia said on Sunday its forces had advanced towards Chasiv Yar and seized control of the settlement of Bohdanivka, as Kyiv said it urgently needed promised US support to fend off a full-scale offensive.

“Units of the Southern grouping group of forces have fully liberated the settlement of Bohdanivka … and have improved the situation along the front line,” Russia’s defence ministry said.

Control of Bohdanivka, located just to the west of the Russian-held city of Bakhmut, has been in doubt for some time.

The village lies some three miles east of Chasiv Yar, a heavily fortified hilltop town and forward artillery base for the Ukrainian army, providing protection for some of the area’s largest cities including Kramatorsk and Slaviansk.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, in its daily report, mentioned Bohdanivka as one of a series of villages where it said Ukrainian forces repelled 13 enemy attacks.

Ukrainian commander Oleksiy Tarasenko has told how instead of making typical light infantry assaults, Putin’s forces were taking brazen risks by launching battalion- and platoon-sized attacks, sometimes with up to ten combat vehicles.

His men destroyed up to 80 tanks within weeks, but it did not slow the enemy. The confidence of the Russian military reflected the Kremlin’s knowledge that Ukraine’s ammunition supplies were dwindling as the US dawdled over approving more military aid.

Wave after wave of mechanized units came for Tarasenko’s brigade.

Protected under an umbrella of attack drones and artillery fire, they reached the foot of Chasiv Yar, which is the gateway to Ukraine’s defensive backbone in the Donetsk province.

“They concentrated disproportionately enormous resources in this direction,” said Tarasenko, deputy commander of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade.

“The most difficult thing is to cope with this constant onslaught from the enemy, which does not change, even though the enemy is losing a lot of military equipment and soldiers.”

The Pentagon has said it could get weapons moving to Ukraine within days if the Senate and President Joe Biden give final approval to the aid package.

But experts and Ukrainian MPs said it could take weeks for more military equipment to reach troops, giving Russia more time to degrade Ukrainian positions, defended by soldiers with limited munitions.

Time is of the essence, said Yurii Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles battalion of the 92nd brigade in the Chasiv Yar region.

“They simply destroyed our positions with massive strikes. Now those positions are constantly hit by artillery, making it impossible to recapture them,” he said.

Russia stepped up its attack tempo soon after gaining control of Avdiivka in February.

Immediately, Moscow’s troops sought to reinforce their tactical success and push further into larger, strategically significant towns – Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk and Druzkhivka – that together form the fortress wall of Ukraine’s main defence of the Donetsk province.

A win in Chasiv Yar, which had a prewar population of 12,000, would bring Russia one step closer to breaking that barricade.

“If the Russians manage to take Chasiv Yar, they are only about 5 to 7 kilometres away from the southernmost link in that chain,” said George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

If Russia manages to push into the seam between Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka, it would be able to attack the fortress belt, he said.

“Then we get into the territory where the Russians might be making some really substantial operational gains and eroding Ukraine’s ability to defend the rest of Donetsk,” he said.

Get ahead of the day with the morning headlines at 7.30am and Fionnán Sheahan’s exclusive take on the day’s news every afternoon, with our free daily newsletter.