Republican Pollster Issues Warning to GOP: 'Final Wakeup Call'

Democrat Tom Suozzi speaks at an event following his victory in the New York’s 3rd Congressional District special election on February 13, 2024. GOP pollster Frank Luntz warned that Suozzi’s victory is a “final wakeup call” for Republicans ahead of the general election in November.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz warned Republicans that Democrats flipping George Santos’ old congressional seat should be a “final warning call” to the party before the November elections.

Former Congressman Tom Suozzi brought New York’s 3rd Congressional District back into Democrats’ hands during the special election to replace Santos Tuesday night, winning over Republican candidate Mazi Pilip.

Suozzi was leading with roughly 54 percent of the vote to Plip’s 46 percent on Wednesday morning. Issues such as immigration and crime defined the competitive race in the district, which comprises parts of Long Island and Queens.

Luntz issued a warning to Republicans following their defeat in a post to X, formerly Twitter, saying that the results are not an “endorsement of Biden,” but instead a “rejection of House Republican chaos.” While he believes voters in the district don’t necessarily approve of Biden’s policies, Republicans “gave voters nothing to vote for,” he wrote.

“Democrats just flipped George Santos’ #NY03House seat. Tonight is the final wakeup call for the @HouseGOP. If they ignore or attempt to explain away why they lost, they will lose in November as well. The issue agenda is on their side. Their congressional behavior is not,” Luntz wrote.

Newsweek reached out to Luntz and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via their online contact forms.

NRCC Chairman Representative Richard Hudson wrote in a press release that the race was an “uphill battle” in a district won by Biden in 2020 where “Democrats outspent Republicans two-to-one,” adding that Republicans “still have multiple pathways to grow our majority in November.”

Suozzi previously represented the district from 2017 to 2023 and vacated the seat to run for New York governor in 2022. However, he ultimately lost the Democratic primary to Governor Kathy Hochul.

On the campaign trail, Suozzi, viewed as a centrist Democrat, admitted concerns about the president’s age and did not campaign alongside the president, whose approval rating has struggled amid voter concerns about his handling of issues ranging from the economy to the influx of migrants arriving at the United States-Mexico border.

New York Special Election Provides ‘Hint’ About How Voters Are Feeling: Expert

James Battista, an associate professor of political science at University at Buffalo, told Newsweek that the election results provide “a hint” about voter sentiment. The results point to a Democratic overperformance from polls, which several special elections have shown, he said, noting that special elections are “their own things.”

“In this case, voter turnout was about 2/3 of turnout in the 2022 midterm. Which is a LOT for a special election! But it means that what we’re seeing here is how habitual voters, the sorts of people who rarely miss any election, are feeling about things,” he said.

The district is an area that may be open to electing Republicans, but has been repelled by Trump and other “MAGA Republicans,” Battista said. While Trump tends to bring out some lower-propensity voters to the polls, he has driven away some “old-style” Republicans, he added.

Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor at Columbia University, told Newsweek that recent special elections are providing a “serious jolt” for Republicans ahead of November, specifically regarding their chances of holding a majority in Congress.

The “chaos” in the House has allowed Democrats to “recover somewhat on the border issue” by highlighting Republicans “holding things up,” he said.

“The Republicans have been hurt by the abortion issue and the Democrats have been doing damage control on the southern border issue thanks to Biden’s willingness to compromise big time, signaling that Democrats can take a harder line on this issue as happened in the election yesterday for Santos’s seat in NY-03,” Shapiro said.

Still, he noted that November will see a larger electorate, and Trump appearing on the ballot will mean Republicans will be better mobilized.

New York Congressional Seat Opened Up After Santos Expulsion

Republican George Santos flipped the seat in 2022 when Democrats faced voter backlash over crime in suburban congressional districts outside of New York City. He won the seat by roughly 7.5 percentage points, despite Biden winning the district by about eight points in 2020.

However, the seat opened up again after Congress voted to expel Santos from the House of Representatives in December after a House Ethics Committee report said investigators found “substantial” proof that Santos broke federal criminal laws.

The committee concluded that Santos used his campaign funds for personal use, engaged in “fraudulent conduct” and filed “false or incomplete reports” to the Federal Election Commission while running for office in 2022.

Santos, however, maintains his innocence and has pleaded not guilty to charges related to a federal criminal investigation. Among the accusations in the 23-count indictment were allegations that he stole from his donors and falsified campaign filings.

Republicans in Congress have faced questions about “chaos” after 10 conservatives voted to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy after he worked with Democrats to temporarily pass a bill to fund the federal government.

House Speaker Mike Johnson last month passed a similar “continuing resolution.” Congress has not yet passed the funding bills.

Despite Luntz’s warning to Republicans, polls still show former President Trump holding a lead over Biden in the general election. An Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted from February 9 to 12 among 1,237 adults found that 37 percent of voters planned to back Trump, while 34 percent said they would vote for Biden. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Update 2/14/24, 10:34 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comments from Robert Y. Shapiro and James Battista.

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