The Ukraine war grinds on — 4 ways the conflict with Russia could end

• It’s almost two years since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out.
• Despite heavy fighting, the conflict still hangs in the balance.

It’s almost two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Fierce fighting has since scarred the local landscape, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and millions more displaced.

A huge Russian army of 360,000 poured into Ukraine in the initial invasion. Against all odds, Ukrainian soldiers forced them back from the gates of Kyiv and out of northern Ukraine. There were further victories when Kherson was liberated and around Kharkiv, where Putin’s forces were defeated.

But Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive last summer stalled after only minor territorial gains, and the frontline has become virtually frozen in a war attrition.

But, on February 17, Ukraine retreated from the northeastern town of Avdiivka, described as the “gateway” to Donetsk. The town’s fall marks one of the biggest changes in battle lines since Russia took Bakhmut in May 2023.

While the war still has no clear end in sight, Business Insider has looked at some of the ways it could be brought to a close.

1. Ukraine holds out

Experts say Ukraine’s hopes hinge on Western aid continuing to flow into the country and Russian morale waning over a long, drawn-out war.

Ukraine relies heavily on military and financial support from the US, the UK, and the EU. And if it continues to receive this, its forces could be well placed to hold off Russian offensives, Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said at a press briefing earlier this week.

Bergmann singled out the debate in the US Congress over a $60 billion aid package as pivotal in shaping the course of the war.

“If that funding is passed, I have no doubt that Ukraine will be able to completely absorb the Russian offensive that is going on in 2024,” he said. “In fact, I would be quite optimistic about Ukraine’s potential in 2025.”

The deal was passed in the Senate earlier this week and will now go to the House of Representatives, where it could face some staunch opposition from some Republican members.

Ukraine has also enjoyed several notable victories that could prove key in shaping the outcome of the war.

In its battle against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, for example, officials have said that the Ukrainian military has sunk a number of key vessels, including the amphibious ship the Caesar Kunikov and the large landing ship the Novocherkassk.

Such ships are vital for Russia, as they represent “one of the main ways in which the Russians are getting ammunition to the front lines in southern Ukraine,” Eliot A. Cohen, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS, said.

“So there’s a maritime campaign where the Ukrainians have been remarkably successful,” he added.

A change in leadership could also be decisive in determining the war’s outcome, Cohen said, noting that most wars end this way.

“I don’t see the Ukrainians giving up, because this is an existential war for them. It is not an existential war for Russia.”

2. Russian victory

Kyiv’s military has also suffered considerable losses to both its munitions’ stocks and its number of troops, and if aid were not to arrive, it could prove to be critical for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces, both militarily and psychologically, Cohen continued.

“I think it is very important that people don’t think that the United States has lost faith in Ukraine,” he said, while also pointing out that the intense debate over the package had likely helped “spur” increased European support.

Cohen and Bergmann also both referenced the sudden German collapse at the end of World War I during the CSIS briefing, noting that lines can break at any time.

Bergmann added that, if Ukrainian supplies are allowed to dwindle, a war of attrition could suit Russia.

“In a war of attrition, lines can break if the attritted side is depleted enough. So I think that passing the assistance is really critical,” he said.

“I think the World War I analogy can be fruitful,” Cohen added. “Nobody expected the war to end in November 1918. You know, in September, even into early October, people are planning for the campaigns of 1919. And there was not just one collapse, but a set of collapses. I think something similar might happen in this case.”

3. A peace deal

Bloomberg reported in January that Putin had “put out feelers” to the US, suggesting that he was prepared to engage in talks over ending the war.

But a Kremlin spokesperson has denied the claim, saying “it absolutely does not correspond to reality.”

US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said that the US was “unaware of the shifts in Russia’s position described” and that “it will be up to Ukraine to decide whether, when, and how to negotiate with Russia.”

The Russian president has also indirectly suggested a cease-fire, something that the US has refused to consider unless Ukraine is involved in discussions, Reuters reported.

4. Nuclear war

Putin has made several threats of using nuclear weapons since the invasion began, but the West is divided on how seriously to take his comments.

Seth Jones, senior vice president at the CSIS, previously told Business Insider that there were major risks involved in using nuclear weapons and that there would also be a danger of nuclear fallout across Russian territory if Putin did use them.

Jones said the risks of breaking the ultimate nuclear weapons taboo would likely outweigh any benefits.

“What would that spell for Vladimir Putin’s regime? I think the US has already communicated pretty forcefully that all bets are off if Russia were to use nuclear weapons,” he added.