Coalition overtakes Labor in primary vote for first time since election

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A new poll ahead of a crucial by-election this week shows the Coalition pulling ahead in the primary vote for the first time since the 2022 federal election.

The Coalition now leads Labor 37 per cent to 34 per cent, according to the exclusive voter survey by Resolve for Nine Newspapers.

While Anthony Albanese is still the preferred Prime Minister, leading Coalition leader Peter Dutton by seven points, the margin is the smallest since Labor came to office in 2022.

The latest Nine Newspapers poll by Resolve is a wake-up call for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the federal government. ( (Photo by Christopher Jue)

In a major shift in political fortunes, Albanese has lost ground on the issue of leadership and trust. He and Dutton are now neck and neck, a big change compared with last year when the prime minister held a handsome lead.

The survey shows the cost-of-living crisis is also hurting support for the government as Australians continue to feel the impacts of higher interest rates and inflation.

The economy is expected to worsen in the next six months, 38 per cent of voters say, while 29 per cent believe it will stay the same. Just 23 per cent think economic conditions will get better.

Another issue concerning voters is border protection, an issue highlighted by the Opposition since the unauthorised arrival of 39 asylum seekers earlier this month.

Now the Coalition is seen as the better manager of immigration and refugees since the High Court decision last November to end indefinite detention.

There are no signs from the polling that the government’s controversial decision to scrap the stage 3 tax cuts has resulted in falling support.

While 52 per cent of voters support the tax cuts, the issue has not resulted into a higher Labor primary vote.

The poll was released ahead of Saturday’s by-election for Dunkley, in Melbourne. It is being held following the death of Labor MP Peta Murphy last year.