Donald Trump's Hopes of Black Support Stung by New Poll

Former President Donald Trump speaks to guests at a rally on April 02, 2024 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. New polling suggests the majority of Black voters support the Democratic Party.

A new poll has suggested Donald Trump will not garner significant support from Black voters in November’s presidential election.

Trump is set to face off against President Joe Biden later this year in a rematch of the 2020 election, as each candidate has won enough delegates to secure their party’s presidential nomination. Ahead of this vote, some reports and polls have suggested there has been racial realignment, with Black voters, who traditionally support the Democratic Party opting to vote for the Republicans instead.

But new research from Pew Research Center suggests otherwise. A survey shows 83 percent of Black voters favor the Democratic Party, a three percent decline from 1994 when 86 percent aligned in this way.

On the other hand, 12 percent support the Republican Party. This marks a one percent decline from 1994 when 13 percent supported the party.

Newsweek contacted a representative for Trump by email to comment on this story.

Pew Research Center surveyed 10,124 people in its annual survey and there was a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.

However, the research did not ask voters about candidates, only parties and the polling still suggests he would perform marginally better than in his previous election. He won 8 percent of the Black vote in 2020.

Previous Newsweek analysis shows that if Trump wins more than 13 percent of the vote share, he will gain the highest proportion of the Black vote since Richard Nixon did in 1960.

In 2020, Biden also won 88 percent of the Black demographic, but in January, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed that 58.6 percent of Black Georgians said they would support Biden, while 20.4 percent said they would support Trump. Ten percent of Black Georgians said they do not plan to vote in 2024.

Speaking to Newsweek in January, Mary Frances Berry, historian at The Pennsylvania State University cited economic reasons for Trump gaining more of the vote share.

“Black males especially cite prices of basic needs, food for example despite the decline in inflation,” she said. “Some who are small business owners say under Trump it was easier for them to get federal loans, for example. They also cite the backlash against police accountability measures as the George Floyd murder discussion has receded into the sunset.”

She continued: “Middle age and older Black women seem to take a better than Trump lesser of two evils posture. But nobody I know is excited about reelecting Biden. They like Kamala Harris, but lots of folks will probably stay home unless some unexpected positive change in economic prospects or civil rights occurs.”

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