These 3 swing states could decide India's fate

These 3 swing states could decide India’s fate

There are seven swing states in the US. They can either vote for the Democrats or the Republicans, and they go on to determine the US elections.

In India, there are three states this Lok Sabha election that could swing any which way, and swing fortunes too. These three could decide if the NDA will really go “400 paar”.

These three Indian swing states are West Bengal, Bihar and Maharashtra. Pollsters aren’t willing to stick their neck out on the three that send 130 MPs — almost a quarter of the seats in Lok Sabha.Â

In most other states, polls have predicted a clear outcome, plus-minus five seats. Â

Amongst the three states, West Bengal, essentially being a two-cornered fight between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, is difficult to predict.Â

Bihar has seen a political realignment just months ahead of the Lok Sabha polls and Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal(United) has rejoined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The state has always been unpredictable, and the pre-poll flux adds to the uncertainty.

Maharashtra has seen two big state-based parties split since the 2019 polls. The splinter groups are part of both the NDA and the INDIA bloc, making the state a pollsters’ nightmare.

So, what makes these three key battleground states, and how will things play out? Â

WILL BENGAL REMAIN BJP’S SUCCESS STORY IN 2024?

Senior journalist and Bengal watcher, Jayanta Ghosal, calls West Bengal a “success story” for the BJP.Â

The way the BJP made inroads into Bengal and won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls is a testimony to the Modi factor and its traction in Junglemahal and North Bengal, over the citizenship issue. Â

The BJP increased its vote share from 17% in 2014 to over 40% in 2019. There was a big shift of the Congress and the Left votes to the BJP.Â

“It is too early to call Bengal as the voting will go on till June. PM Modi hasn’t started his real campaign yet. What issues will he bring? Remember, this is Modi’s, not Mamata’s, election,” says senior journalist and Bengal watcher Jayanta Ghosal.

He says Bengal is definitely a battleground state because there will be a tough fight for every seat and every seat will matter.

“If the BJP increases its tally by two more seats than what it had in 2019, it will be a victory for it. If Mamata can take two seats away from the BJP, it will be a big win for her,” says Ghosal, explaining how tight the fight in Bengal is.Â

“Though 2024 is what matters now, the fight is also for the 2026 assembly polls,” adds Ghosal.

Strategist Prashant Kishor has predicted a big win for the BJP in West Bengal. He said recently that the BJP would emerge as the biggest party in Bengal in the Lok Sabha polls.

“There is no doubt that the BJP’s vote share will increase, but will this reflect in growth in the number of seats is the real question,” says Ghosal.

What will be crucial this time, says Ghosal, is whether the Congress and Left votes, which had gone to the BJP in 2019, remain with the saffron party or not.

“The BJP starts with a 30% disadvantage in West Bengal while Mamata has a 30% advantage,” says Ghosal, pointing to the Muslim votes in the state.Â

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There are two drawbacks for the BJP in Bengal, explains Ghosal.Â

“In Bengal, the BJP lacks the kind of organisational structure that it has in Uttar Pradesh. Second, it has no single face to project,” he explains.

There is reportedly internal bickering within the Bengal BJP unit with three power centres in Suvendu Adhikari, Dilip Ghosh and Sukanto Majumdar.

Also, what makes Bengal a battleground state is the astute political cunning of Mamata Banerjee. “She is neither Rahul Gandhi, nor Akhilesh Yadav,” says Ghosal, adding that the Trinamool chief can turn the tables on anyone.

India Today’s Mood of the Nation poll, which predicted outcomes if the election were to be held in January, revealed a close fight in West Bengal. It said the BJP would increase its tally to 19, while the Trinamool would stay at 22. The Congress, according to the poll, would be reduced to a single seat.

BIHAR: A STATE THAT KEEPS ITS CARD CLOSE TO ITS CHEST

Bihar, which gave 39 of the 40 seats to the NDA in 2019, has always been a state that has been extremely unpredictable.Â

Patna-based senior journalist Rohit Singh cites the examples of the 2015 Assembly election to explain the unpredictability.

“In the 2015 assembly election, it appeared that the BJP would emerge victorious but suddenly, after two hours of counting of votes, you saw how Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad’s Mahagatbandhan won emphatically,” says Rohit Singh.Â

What adds to the unpredictability this time is the switches in partners that Nitish Kumar and his JD(U) have made and the doubts that have created in the minds of the voters.

Nitish Kumar fought the 2020 Assembly election with the BJP and then allied with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Lalu Prasad in 2022. He again switched back to the BJP in January 2024. With his frequent changing of sides, Nitish Kumar has earned the moniker of ‘Paltu Ram’. Â

“Bihar has always remained very unpredictable for pollsters, and this time because of the lot of flip-flops that Nitish Kumar has done in the last four-five years, the voters are also confused. Which side should they switch?” asks Rohit Singh.Â

“A lot of voters believe that it was good for the state when Nitish Kumar was with the RJD-Congress Mahagatbandhan. They say his switching to the NDA won’t help Bihar,” says Singh.

Singh says that there is also a section of the voters that believes that as far as the caste combination is concerned, the BJP and the JD(U) appear to be a potent combination, at least on paper.

Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, who belongs to the Kurmi community, has been traditionally attracting and is expected to get support from a big chunk of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) voters in the state, which is 36.01% of the state’s population. The Bihar caste census of 2023, spearheaded by Nitish Kumar, is set to consolidate the extremely backward votes further.

The BJP-JD(U) combination worked perfectly in the 2005 and the 2010 Assembly elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections too, when Nitish Kumar and the BJP fought together, they won 39 of the 40 seats.Â

With the caste factor on their side, the BJP-JD(U) combine looks strong. What is also of concern for the RJD is the internal rift within the party.

The RJD is dealing with some rebel MLAs, as was evident from the floor test in which Nitish Kumar sailed through after joining hands with the BJP. Then there is the instance of Pappu Yadav. Denied an RJD ticket from Purnia, Pappu Yadav is contesting as an Independent.

“Amid this internal bickering in the RJD, it will be a big big task and a challenge for Lalu Yadav and Tejasvi Yadav to stop the Modi juggernaut in the state,” says Rohit Singh.

MAHARASHTRA SPLITS COULD IMPACT LOK SABHA POLLS

Maharashtra, a state which sends the second-highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha, has been an easy state for the NDA since 2014, but not anymore.Â

Politics and political parties in Maharashtra have both changed since the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

The state had handsomely rewarded the NDA with 41 of the state’s 48 seats. It was a time when the BJP and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena were fighting together.

The official Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, is with the BJP, and so is the official Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which is led by Ajit Pawar.

Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and NCP founder Sharad Pawar are in the INDIA bloc with the Congress.

The splintering of the parties and the snatching of the official tags from both Thackeray and Pawar senior likely hasn’t gone down well with the people. The ruling combine faces a tough task in the western swing state.

The Mood of the Nation poll shows the INDIA bloc winning 26 seats and the NDA just 22 if the election were to be conducted in January.

Maharashtra’s political landscape has seen a tectonic shift since 2019. And with fluctuating vote shares, the NDA faces a steep uphill battle in a crucial swing state. The state’s voting trends signal a looming challenge for those currently in power.

Amid the realignments, the BJP has managed to get the support of Thackeray family member Raj Thackeray, the chief of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

The announcement, however, has not gone well with Raj Thackeray’s party members and several party leaders have quit.

Raj Thackeray’s MNS had supported Narendra Modi’s candidature as the PM in 2014 but later became his critic.

Another issue that could play out any which way is the issue of the Maratha reservations.Â

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has brought a bill to reserve an additional 10% quota for the Maratha community in jobs and education. The issue is being battled in the Bombay High Court.

Members of the Other Backward Classes (OBC), who have been voting for the BJP, are jittery about the Maratha reservation bill. They fear it would eat into their share of the quota.

The stand the BJP and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena take on this issue will have a bearing on the poll outcomes too.

All these go to make Maharashtra a big swing state.

What factors come into play and how people vote in Maharashtra, Bihar and West Bengal will have a big impact on the fortunes of the parties, and ultimately on the route India takes.

These three swing states that send 25% of the MPs to the Lok Sabha, in a way, will decide the future of the country.