NFC title game prediction: Why Lions will advance to Super Bowl

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell talks with quarterback Jared Goff.

We’re on the cusp of witnessing history.

Will the Lions make their first Super Bowl? Can San Francisco’s Brock Purdy become the first quarterback selected with the final pick of an NFL Draft to lead his team to the big game?

Here’s our breakdown for the NFC Championship Game.

Detroit Lions (14-5) at San Francisco 49ers (13-5) | Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Offense

LIONS: 27.1 points per game (fifth) | 394.8 yards per game (third)

49ERS: 28.9 points per game (third) | 398.4 yards per game (second)

For the second year in a row, the Lions had a top-five scoring offense led by former No. 1 overall pick quarterback Jared Goff. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (1,515 yards receiving, 10 TDs) is Goff’s favorite target while running back David Montgomery led the team with 1,015 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Detroit’s outstanding rookies, running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta, are second on the team in rushing yards and receiving yards, respectively.

Purdy, the “Mr. Irrelevant” as the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, led the league in yards per attempt (9.6 yards) and touchdown rate (seven percent) while propelling the Niners to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. As impressive as he was, running back Christian McCaffrey — who led the league with 1,459 rushing yards — is San Francisco’s most valuable player. Tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk give the 49ers a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, but the health of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) looms large.

Defense

LIONS: 23.2 points per game (23rd) | 336.1 yards per game (19th)

49ERS: 17.5 points per game (third) | 303.9 yards per game (eighth)

Detroit’s biggest defensive improvement was against the run. The Lions were second in rush defense (88.8 yards per game) during the regular season and only allowed 3.7 yards per carry. However, the secondary struggled, allowing over 300 passing yards in each of its past five games. Just as on offense, a pair of rookies — linebacker Jack Campbell and safety Brian Branch — played key roles, but it’s second-year edge Aidan Hutchinson (11.5 sacks) who’s the unit’s best player.

Nick Bosa (10.5 sacks) leads a strong 49ers defensive line. Linebacker Fred Warner is also among the best at his position and led the team with 132 tackles. Because the defense often played with a lead, it faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league (21.7 attempts per game) but ranked 14th in yards per attempt (4.1 yards). The pass defense was much better, allowing only 20 touchdowns to 22 interceptions, the most in the league.

Prediction

The 49ers seemingly have a glaring advantage on defense, but as Green Bay showed in the divisional round, San Francisco is susceptible to the run. If Detroit can avoid an early deficit, it should be able to find similar success. The Lions’ strong rush defense suggests the Niners might need to rely on Purdy’s arm, which is where Samuel’s injury could play a major role. As good as Aiyuk and Kittle are, it will be easier to line up against them if Samuel is out of the picture.

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has proven himself to be one of the league’s best offensive play-callers, but his ultra-conservative approach at the end of the first half in the NFC divisional round is concerning. On the other sideline, Lions head coach Dan Campbell is always pushing the envelope and has his team ready to attack. He’ll roll the dice again Sunday, leading Detroit — a seven-point underdog, per FanDuel — to the Super Bowl.

PREDICTION: Lions, 28-24

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