El Nino likely to end by May, Indian monsoon may be spared
The current spell of ongoing El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean is expected to get completely over in the next couple of months, minimising chances of a hit on the earlier part of the Indian monsoon this year.
The latest monthly outlook on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system by the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States says ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail between April and June and a La Nina likely to emerge thereafter.
El Nino and La Nina are the two alternating phases of sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the South American coast, in which the waters get unusually warm or cold. These large-scale alternating phases impact weather events across the globe. An El Nino phase is known to suppress rainfall over India during monsoon, while La Nina has the opposite effect.
“During February 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean… A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance),” the forecast said.
Over India too, the temperatures are expected to be more than normal till May. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its recent outlook, had said that both the maximum as well as minimum temperatures are expected to remain above the normal range in most parts of the country between March and May.
Next month, the IMD will issue its first long-range forecast for this year’s monsoon season. Since 2015, rainfall during the monsoon season has been in the normal range every year except 2018.
The ongoing spell of El Nino in 2023-24 was among the five strongest ever, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It had come on the back of one of the longest and strongest phases of La Nina that had extended for three years between 2020 and 2022.
The WMO said the impact of the current El Nino could continue at least till May this year, with most parts of the world expected to experience above-normal temperatures during this time. It said that the sea-surface temperature in other oceans was also high, and this would play a role in keeping global temperatures warmer than usual in the coming months.
“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record, and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement.
“Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Nino. But sea-surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past ten months. The January 2024 sea-surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Nino alone,” Celeste said.
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